Usman Yusuf ABUBAKAR (2007) A Stochastic Model in Discrete States and Discrete Time for the Control of Leprosy Disease

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A Stochastic Model in Discrete States and Discrete Time for the Control of Leprosy Disease

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CONTRIBUTORS:

Author:

Usman Yusuf ABUBAKAR

JOURNAL:

Leonardo Journal of Sciences, 6(11), 51 - 60.

YEAR:

2007

PUB TYPE:

Journal Article

SUBJECT(S):

Stochastic; Semi-Markov; Interval; Transition; Probability; Leprosy, Control

DISCIPLINE:

Medicine

HTTP:

http://ljs.academicdirect.org/A11/051_060.pdf

LANGUAGE:

English

PUB ID:

103-439-839 (Last edited on 2008/01/06 03:43:45 US/Mountain)

SPONSOR(S):

ABSTRACT:
This paper presents the use of Semi-Markov model in discrete state and discrete time to study the condition of leprosy patients. Leprosy is considered to be controlled if is possible to maximize recovery and consequently minimize relapse and death. The model takes into account the concept of effectiveness of the treatment. The result shows that it is possible to attain a zero probabilities for a relapse and death from leprosy when the treatment is very effective. The model could be used to predict the cases of leprosy disease. The predictions could be used for planning resources for the control of leprosy.

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