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ABSTRACT:
The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction
in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a
great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, I told
you so. If it doesn't occur, you say, It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them.
How can you lose?
When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax. Here is a man claiming to
be a highly respected economist who makes a forecast and provides a date. The forecast is that
the great depression will occur in 1990. A variety of paths to redemption are provided, the most
important being that rich people should have to give up much of their riches, for it is the
concentration of wealth that causes business cycles. This is a fact that Batra claims to have
discovered. Batra suggests that society should tax this wealth. On the other hand, he also
provides advice to rich people on how to preserve their wealth put it in cash, then store it in a
safe deposit box and at home. Businessmen should avoid long-term investments.
The key concept of my review is methodological. Are the methods used in the book
sound? Here are the methods:
(1) The appeal to authority. Batra claims to be a leading economist. Lester Thurow, Dean
of the Sloan School at MIT wrote an encouraging preface to the book.
(2) History repeats itself. Regular economic cycles exist.
(3) Logical deduction. The forecasts rest upon a theory developed by P.R. Sarkar.
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STATISTICS
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