Een halve eeuw vakbondslidmaatschap. Een verkennende longitudinale studie naar enkele cyclische determinanten voor de ledenontwikkeling van de Belgische vakbeweging, 1946-1995
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ABSTRACT:
This article tries to explain the ebb and flow in Belgian trade union membership during the period 1946-1995 by replicating the influential econometric model by Bain and Elsheikh. The model demonstrates that changes in macro-economic variables are highly significant. Since the automatic indexation of wages and the extension of collective labour agreements invite free riding, the relevance of the change in inflation and real wage is quite striking. However, a closer look reveals that the free riding-effect is slowed down by the institutionalised presence of the trade unions on the work floor. The Ghent system explains the positive impact of the unemployment rate. The model is furthermore improved by the trade union density, lagged with one year, as a structural variable. The linear form reflects the enforcement effect and the quadratic form mirrors, later on, the saturation effect on the trade union membership. Mainly due to the ‘Allgemeinkoalitionsfähighkeit’ of the Belgian government system, the impact of left parties on union growth and decline is not significant in a quantitative framework. With only four explanatory variables the model clarifies more than 75% of the fluctuations in Belgian trade union membership.
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