Predictors of performance in the National Hockey League
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ABSTRACT:
A study was conducted to determine those factors that predict performance in the National Hockey League. The National Hockey League Official Guide and Record Book 1993-1994 was the archival source for this investigation. A regression analysis with a total of 740 players was conducted using the following predictor variables: goals scored per game in regular season junior career; assists per regular season game in junior; points scored per regular season game in junior; goals scored per game in junior playoff games; assists per playoff game in junior; points per playoff game in junior; career penalty minutes per game in regular season in junior; career penalty minutes per game in playoff in junior; awards won in junior; all star team selections in junior; current playing position; shot (left or right); last junior league played in; entry draft rank; current height; and, current weight. Two dependent variables were used as estimates of NHL performance: points scored per regular season game in career, and points per playoff game in career. The analysis identified a number of predictor variables related to junior performance, shot, and weight. Entry draft rank generally was found to be a poor predictor of performance. This suggests that the criteria upon which draft selections are made seem to require modification. Suggestions were offered concerning future investigations using other predictor and outcome variables.
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